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Bitcoin Bullish Because of Iran?
On Jan. 2, U.S. officials confirmed that Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was killed in Baghdad in an airstrike directed by President Donald Trump. Due to Soleimani’s status as a key leader in Iran, media—mainstream and social media alike — erupted; every commentator was trying to weigh in on what this event meant for foreign policy, a potential World War 3, oil, and — you guessed it—Bitcoin.
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Interestingly, a majority think that this geopolitical event will be either neutral or bullish for Bitcoin. Michael Novogratz, a former partner of Goldman Sachs and the current chief executive of crypto firm Galaxy Digital, recently remarked on Twitter that the “more I analyze this Iranian situation, the more bullish [on] gold and BTC I become.”The more I analyze this Iranian situation, the more bullish gold and $btc I become.
— Michael Novogratz (@novogratz) January 5, 2020
He went on to explain his reasoning, writing that due to the general’s death, “Iraq [will] expel US troops. Iran will have to pull in Iraq. Saudis don’t want conflict. Middle East will become less stable, creating volatility in markets.”
This ties in with the theories of many cryptocurrency investors that Bitcoin is being increasingly seen as a macro play. Former Wall Street executive Raoul Pal, for instance, has lumped the orange coin in with gold, silver, and other macro plays on many occasions.
The idea here, of course, being that BTC should rise in times of geopolitical and macroeconomic instability due to it being an asset that is decentralized, non-sovereign, and scarce.
$20,000 By Early-2021
While Novogratz didn’t give any concrete price predictions this time around, he has previously said in an interview that the expects BTC to hit $20,000 by early-2021 at the latest.
As to why Bitcoin is likely to hit its all-time highs once again, the investor cited institutional involvement. The Galaxy Digital CEO’s long-held thesis is that institutions, coupled with solution providers like Bakkt, will bring a mass influx of capital into Bitcoin markets that were not seen before.
Also, as evidenced in the above tweet, the former Wall Streeter has looked to macro trends that may favor Bitcoin: negative interest rates, geopolitical unrest, and mistrust in centralized systems.
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